A range of demand scenarios is possible across these dynamics. Taken together, a likely outlook sees annual demand growth over a ten-year period in the range of 2% to 4% CAGR.

This outlook reflects growing GDP and PDI; sustained underlying demand in the US; eventual differentiation between natural diamonds and LGDs as LGD prices and retailer margins fall; a more moderate outlook for China; and the realization of strong growth in India.

Given the instability of the past five years- which have seen increased demand for LGDs, the pandemic, the catch-up effect after Covid restrictions eased, and a challenging 2023- understanding the industry outlook requires a fundamentals approach: the likely outlook on many factors is not necessarily a continuation of momentum.

This also means the natural diamond industry cannot stay idle. A positive demand outlook is also driven by several industry initiatives. These include effective marketing to support category and industry collaborations that reinforce the desirability of natural diamonds among US consumers.

They also include continued efforts to build desirability in Asia. We hope you find the report instructive in understanding the long-term natural diamond industry outlook, particularly at this dynamic moment in time, said BCG in collaboration with De Beers.